Why professions change before they disappear
Almost always, the first change is in the tasks, not in the job title.
When people talk about technology and the future of work, the question always comes up: "will this profession end?". The answer is rarely a yes or a no. What the history of work suggests is that, before a profession disappears, if it does, it usually changes.
A profession is not one thing
A profession is a set of tasks. When a technology automates part of them, the rest continues, and often becomes more important. This logic helps explain why the focus should be on tasks, not only on the job title.
What usually happens
- Some tasks are automated. The most repetitive and predictable ones tend to go first.
- Free time goes to other tasks. Often to those involving judgment, relationships or creativity.
- The role changes shape. New titles, new required skills and new ways of working emerge.
- Some roles shrink. If demand falls and automation covers much of the work, the number of jobs may decrease.
- New roles appear. Linked to the use, supervision and maintenance of the new tools, or to needs that did not exist before.
Illustrative examples
Consider the job of typing documents: with computers and word processors, typing tasks were absorbed by everyone, and administrative assistant roles came to include coordination, organization and service. Or bank tellers: with ATMs and apps, customer service changed in nature, and some branches began focusing on advice. These examples illustrate the pattern, and details vary by country, sector and period.
Nuances
- Change is not the same for everyone. People with little access to training or living in regions with fewer opportunities may feel the impact more strongly.
- Pace matters. Gradual changes allow adaptation; rapid changes are harder.
- Predictions get it wrong. Many projections about professions disappearing did not come true, and others changed shape unexpectedly.
- Disappearing also happens. Some occupations have shrunk a lot or ceased to exist. The transition can be hard for those in them.
What to do
- Look at the tasks in your work: which are repetitive, which require judgment?
- Learn to use the new tools in your field.
- Invest in transferable skills: communication, analysis, problem-solving and continuous learning.
- Keep a network of contacts and talk to people in other fields.
